Cannabis Musings - February 13, 2024

Wanna bet?

Friends, long-time readers of these Cannabis Musings know that I’ve been a SAFE(+R) Banking skeptic from the start.  I’ve always been of the opinion that Congress has more things to worry about than giving plant-touching companies cheaper banking and insurance.  Although banking legislation is less of a focus for the industry these days, given that it’s on its ninth iteration, and the prospect of 280E tax relief offered by rescheduling is distracting with its siren song, the dream remains alive in some circles.

I admit that I’ve also made, and won, a number of bets wagering against the passage of SAFE(+R) Banking over the years.  (I recognize that it’s a bit like placing a “Don’t Pass” bet at a packed craps table, in that it’s betting against an industry win, but I have no shame.) So far, I’ve (fortunately and unfortunately) won every single one of those meals and drinks that I’ve staked.  I remain skeptical.

Long-time readers also know that my muse is Matt Levine, also an ex-lawyer and author of Bloomberg’s Money Stuff.  In today’s newsletter, he wrote about Manifold Markets, which he described as “a sort-of-play-money prediction market that allows people to propose questions and bet on the answers.”  Much to my delight, I discovered that there’s a number of predictions about cannabis, with rescheduling before 2025 being the most active.  But, alas, nothing on SAFER Banking.

Well, not anymore!  You’re cordially invited to place a bet on my new prediction question of whether SAFER Banking will become law before January 1, 2025.  No real money is at stake – it’s all fake currency created to facilitate the trades – so you have no excuse in not participating in this experiment.  I’ve placed my bet. 

The prediction question may be found here.  In all seriousness, I think it would be interesting to see what our fellow readers think of the fate of SAFER Banking this year, so please take a few minutes to sign up and make your wager.  And please spread the word – the more people we have participating, the better we’ll be able to gauge sentiment.

Be seeing you!

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© 2024 Marc Hauser and Hauser Advisory.  None of the foregoing is legal, investment, or any other sort of advice, and it may not be relied upon in any manner, shape, or form.