Cannabis Musings - September 22, 2025
Show me the numbers, please.
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“Az men hot gelt, iz men i klug, i sheyn, i men kan gut zingen” (“With money in your pocket, you’re wise, you’re handsome, and you sing well too.”)
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Veterans of the cannabis industry are used to waiting. Waiting for the long-teased SAFE(R) Banking to finally get to the Senate floor. Waiting for the FDA to allow and regulate hemp-derived CBD. Waiting for the money to come back. Waiting for social equity programs to level the playing field. Waiting for states to stem the tide of unlicensed (so-called “traditional market”) cannabis. Waiting for it to just get a little better.
One thing I’m waiting for these days is better data about the so-called intoxicating hemp industry. Unlike the above, it looks like this might soon come. The reason is that there’s a lot of nebulous, speculative information out there about the size, depth, and trends in the space. We’ve seen a lot of outsized projections about future growth for products, particularly for hemp-derived THC beverages, that would outpace every other “beyond beer” category. Big, if true. Such unbridled optimism has shades of the investor and analyst attitudes towards the potential growth of (non-hemp) licensed cannabis in 2016-18. Also big, if true.
Take, also, the way statistics are used by hemp operators to bolster advocacy efforts. For example, the fight over Texas hemp (which is still in flux) has thrown around the statistic that 8,000 licensed hemp businesses are at risk. That sounds scary, until you look at the licensing program itself – all it takes is $125 and a form to get the right to manufacture or sell at retail any sort of consumable hemp product in the state, even a single SKU. In other words, 8,000 businesses aren’t necessarily going to close up shop in Texas if the state bans hemp, but that’s how the statistic is often presented.
I’m not trying to downplay the real effect that ban would have (please don’t email me) – I’m more highlighting that we don’t have good information to reasonably, accurately predict the actual effects, because we don’t have a great handle on those numbers today. How many of those 8,000 licensees are actually selling consumable hemp products? Of those who actually sell products, what is the depth and breadth of sales in those stores? If the state (or any other state, or the federal government) allows low-dose beverages, but bans THCA flower, how would that change the potential impact?
The industry, regulators, investors, everyone is simply underserved by a lack of good data. What the intoxicating hemp industry needs is something like NielsenIQ to provide real time, point-of-sale information about product sales. Services like NielsenIQ are relied upon deeply by the beverage industry (alcohol and not) for every kind of statistic imaginable because they’re based on actual sales information, not assumption-heavy extrapolations. The hemp consumables space would gain well-needed legitimacy if it could start putting out the same kinds of data from the same kinds of sources as other industries do.
Granted, something like NielsenIQ would probably track hemp-derived THC beverages to start (since they’ve been adopted by alcohol retailers and distributors), but that’s not nothing. We’d be able to understand so much more about the industry, the market, the customers, and the potential, particularly as it’s tracked over time. We’d be able to assess whether these drinks are a passing fancy or stay relevant over the long term, and operators would be able to better improve their chances it’s the latter. We can only know what we know.
I’ve been hearing for some months now that NielsenIQ is starting to track and report these products, and one hemp-derived THC beverage company recently put out a press release (we all know how much the cannabis industry loves press releases) touting its purported #1 ranking, while another curiously made a similar boast on LinkedIn, but I have yet to see any actual reports available (I’ve been searching and asking around), announced by NielsenIQ, or even written about elsewhere.
In any event, let’s hope the rumors are true. Let’s hope a Cannabis Musings reader has some of this reporting and is willing to share it (without violating any confidentiality or terms of service, of course…). We can’t stand to wait much longer.
“Bis se kummt die nechomo, kricht arois die neschomo.” (“If you wait until your ship comes in, you're likely to lose your strength.”)
Be seeing you.
© 2025 Marc Hauser. None of the foregoing is legal, investment, or any other sort of advice, and it may not be relied upon in any manner, shape, or form. The foregoing represents my own views and not those of Jardín, B&Y Ventures, or anyone else who employs/hires me.